Changelog

What has moved the aggregate’s two-party preferred estimate, and when each statistical finding appeared or fell away – recorded entry by entry as new polls land.

data/changelogrecording

# 6 entries since 2026-10-12

  1. poll

    YouGov (MRP) (fieldwork 10–29 Jul, n=5,007) added — the two-party preferred estimate held at 52.3 (Labor v the Coalition, implied flows). Primary votes held. Leader ratings: Albanese's net approval −21.6 → −21.7. House effect (Labor v the Coalition, implied flows; positive leans Labor): YouGov (MRP) held at −0.2. release ↗

  2. headline

    The headline pairing is now Labor v the Coalition (it was Labor v One Nation); the estimate reads 52.3 (implied flows).

  3. poll

    DemosAU (MRP) (fieldwork 4 Aug–19 Sep, n=9,740) added — the two-party preferred estimate held at 52.4 (Labor v One Nation, implied flows). Primary votes held. House effect (Labor v One Nation, implied flows; positive leans Labor): DemosAU (MRP) held at −0.4. release ↗

  4. finding

    NSW voters (by state) no longer break significantly toward others, relative to all voters.

  5. poll

    Roy Morgan (fieldwork 28 Sep–11 Oct, n=2,655) added — the two-party preferred estimate moved 52.3 → 52.4 (Labor v One Nation, implied flows). Primary votes: Labor 27.6 → 27.5, the Coalition 21.8 → 21.6, One Nation 26.3 → 26.1, others 10.9 → 11.4. Leader ratings: Albanese's net approval −21.7 → −21.6. National direction: right track 24.0 → 27.1, wrong track 63.9 → 62.2 (net −39.9 → −35.1). House effect (Labor v One Nation, implied flows; positive leans Labor): Roy Morgan held at +0.8. release ↗

  6. start

    The change log starts here — the two-party preferred estimate is 52.3 (Labor v One Nation, implied flows). Primary votes: Labor 27.6, the Coalition 21.8, One Nation 26.3, the Greens 13.4, others 10.9. Leader ratings: Albanese's net approval −21.7, Albanese's net favourability −20.7, Taylor's net approval −6.9, Taylor's net favourability −4.7, Hanson's net approval −2.6, Hanson's net favourability −5.6. National direction: right track 24.0, wrong track 63.9 (net −39.9). Leading significantly as the best party: Labor on climate change; One Nation on crime; the Coalition on economic management; Labor on health; One Nation on immigration. Moving significantly over the past month: the share naming economic management a top-three issue (up); Labor's share as the best party on housing (down). From today, every movement in these figures and every statistical finding that comes or goes is recorded here.

next entry when the next poll lands

A poll landing is what writes most of these – the RSS feed lists each new poll as it is added, with a link to the pollster’s own release, and All polls is the interactive archive.

Sources

Roy Morgan, YouGov, Newspoll, RedBridge/Accent, Resolve, Essential, DemosAU, Newspoll (pooled), Freshwater, Spectre Strategy, DemosAU (MRP), Fox & Hedgehog, YouGov (MRP), Wolf & Smith, EMRS (Tas), RedBridge/Accent (MRP), Roy Morgan (SMS), Agenda C Synesis, Roy Morgan (pooled). Field dates and sample sizes are listed per poll in the archive.

auspol tracker is an unofficial aggregator of published federal opinion polling. Best efforts are made to make the aggregate figures transparent, trustworthy, statistically sound, and informative, but they are, in the end, estimates only. Federal polling archives I’ve located are stored here for safekeeping and convenience.