Poll disagreement

How far the polls sit from the trend through them, month by month, set against the spread sampling error alone would leave. Polls that scatter more widely than that disagree for reasons beyond chance – method, timing or a real shift; polls that sit closer than it may be leaning on one another. The live page charts the two-party and primary-vote measures. The latest figures are on the front page.

Sources

Roy Morgan, YouGov, Newspoll, RedBridge/Accent, Resolve, Essential, DemosAU, Newspoll (pooled), Freshwater, Spectre Strategy, DemosAU (MRP), Fox & Hedgehog, YouGov (MRP), Wolf & Smith, EMRS (Tas), RedBridge/Accent (MRP), Roy Morgan (SMS), Agenda C Synesis, Roy Morgan (pooled). Field dates and sample sizes are listed per poll in the archive.

auspol tracker is an unofficial aggregator of published federal opinion polling. Best efforts are made to make the aggregate figures transparent, trustworthy, statistically sound, and informative, but they are, in the end, estimates only. Federal polling archives I’ve located are stored here for safekeeping and convenience.