vicpol tracker
Aggregated opinion polling for the next Victorian state election. The Coalition leads Labor 52.8–47.2 two-party preferred on implied preference flows (±2) – updated from 64 published polls across 8 polling houses. Election day: Saturday 28 November 2026.
Two-party preferred
Labor 47.2%, Coalition 52.8% on implied preference flows — the pollsters’ own published figures read Labor 45.8%, Coalition 54.2%
the Coalition leads by 5.6 points (±4.0 on the lead) on implied preference flows – every poll’s primary votes re-allocated by the 2022 Victorian election's flows (measured from the VEC's district counts; One Nation's from the 2025 federal count), so every poll that publishes primaries counts, not only those that file a two-party figure. The figure is a smoothed trend (a Kalman smoother) through every poll this term, each counted by its sample and adjusted for its pollster’s lean, carrying a 95% interval of ±2.0 points on each share.
Primary vote
| Party | 2022 election | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Labor | 36.7% | 24.5% |
| Coalition | 34.5% | 28.8% |
| Greens | 11.5% | 13.4% |
| One Nation | 0.3% | 22.1% |
| Others | 17.1% | 11.2% |
Latest polls
Most recent published Victorian polls – the two-party figures read each poll’s primaries at the same preference flows, so the table compares house to house on one fixed allocation.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | ALP 2PP | L/NP 2PP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freshwater | 24–28 Sep | 1,030 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| DemosAU | 10–20 Sep | 1,020 | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| RedBridge/Accent | 1–14 Sep | 2,371 | 46.7% | 53.3% |
| Resolve | 13 Sep | 1,000 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
Sources
Resolve, RedBridge/Accent, DemosAU, Freshwater, Roy Morgan (SMS), Newspoll, Wolf & Smith, YouGov (MRP). Field dates and sample sizes are listed per poll in the archive.
vicpol tracker is an unofficial aggregator of published Victorian opinion polling, part of auspol tracker. The figures are estimates only.