About vicpol tracker

How the aggregate is made: the weighting and house-lean method, the pollsters it tracks, and the terms the site uses.

About this tracker

vicpol tracker pools every published Victorian voting-intention poll of the current term. The two-party and primary-vote lines are smoothed trends through every poll this term, each poll counted by its sample and adjusted for its pollster’s lean against the other houses polling around it, shrunk toward zero while the evidence is thin. The implied two-party reading reallocates every poll’s primaries at the 2022 Victorian election's flows (measured from the VEC's district counts; One Nation's from the 2025 federal count), so every poll that publishes primaries counts, not only those that file a two-party figure. Leadership ratings and preferred premier are plain published readings. It is part of auspol tracker, the federal poll aggregate.

The live page’s Info tab defines the terms both sites use – two-party preferred, implied flows, house lean, the preference-flow machinery and the rest – and links every pollster’s series and methodology statement.

Sources

Resolve, RedBridge/Accent, DemosAU, Freshwater, Roy Morgan (SMS), Newspoll, Wolf & Smith, YouGov (MRP). Field dates and sample sizes are listed per poll in the archive.

vicpol tracker is an unofficial aggregator of published Victorian opinion polling, part of auspol tracker. The figures are estimates only.