Poll disagreement

How far the polls sit from the trend through them, month by month, set against the spread sampling error alone would leave. Polls that scatter more widely than that disagree for reasons beyond chance – method, timing or a real shift; polls that sit closer than it may be leaning on one another. The live page charts the two-party and primary-vote measures. The latest figures are on the front page.

Sources

Resolve, RedBridge/Accent, DemosAU, Freshwater, Roy Morgan (SMS), Newspoll, Wolf & Smith, YouGov (MRP). Field dates and sample sizes are listed per poll in the archive.

vicpol tracker is an unofficial aggregator of published Victorian opinion polling, part of auspol tracker. The figures are estimates only.