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auspol tracker – Australian federal polling

Aggregated opinion polling for the next Australian federal election, and for all since 1943.

Election model (beta)

The 2028 House as the polls stand

Labor would probably win the most seats, probably short of a majority

In 20,000 simulated elections held on the polls to 3 November, Labor wins 65 seats on average (45 to 84 in nine of ten), One Nation 40 (16 to 68) and the Coalition 33 (16 to 51). Labor reaches the 76 seats needed to govern alone in 19% of them.

Polls to 3 November 2026 (16 polls since 4 September) · model run 6 November 2026 · 20,000 simulated elections · how it works

Labor majority 19%Labor most seats, no majority 64%One Nation majority 3%One Nation most seats, no majority 12%Coalition most seats, no majority 2%

Labor 65 seats on average, 45 to 84 in nine simulations of ten; One Nation 40 seats on average, 16 to 68 in nine simulations of ten; The Coalition 33 seats on average, 16 to 51 in nine simulations of ten; Independents 8 seats on average, 4 to 11 in nine simulations of ten; The Greens 4 seats on average, 1 to 9 in nine simulations of ten.

Labor most seats 83%
6545–84
One Nation most seats 15%
4016–68
The Coalition most seats 2%
3316–51
Independents
84–11
The Greens
41–9
nine simulations in tenthe middle halfthe medianThe large figure is the average; the small range is the nine-in-ten band.

How many seats each party wins

Seat by seat

Try your own numbers

The same model, run in your browser

Change the national vote, how voters order their preferences, or how much the model is unsure of, and the model re-runs on your settings: one central projection straight away, then a thousand simulated elections. Everything else stays as the official run has it.

How the model works

Five steps, every setting fitted on past elections

How well it has done

Past elections, counted again with only what was known beforehand

What it cannot know

The data and the code