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auspol tracker – Australian federal polling

Aggregated opinion polling for the next Australian federal election, set against the last twenty.

Galaxy Research poll archive

Galaxy Research's federal polls before 2012: 21 national polls from September 2004 to August 2010, pieced together from the sources that outlived the pollster, and an index of every page of galaxyresearch.com.au that survives.

Galaxy Research polled federally for the News Ltd metropolitan dailies from 2004. It took over running Newspoll in mid-2015, was bought by YouGov (announced 15 December 2017), published as YouGov Galaxy from 2018 to 2020, and then simply as YouGov. Its website is gone, and its owner kept nothing. What follows is what survives, and where.

This archive exists because the usual source runs out. Wikipedia's opinion-polling articles list Galaxy polls for the 2013, 2016, and 2019 elections only (20, 9, and 5 of them). Its article for the 2010 election lists none, and there is no article for 2007 at all. That is why the tracker's own Galaxy polls start on 3 August 2011, and every poll below comes before then.

The federal polls, 2004 to 2010

18 of these 21 polls also appear in the tracker's Past cycles. The rest are only here: a poll whose Greens share was never published can't join a past cycle without a figure being invented for it, so it stays a transcript. A missing figure is not a zero. Figures are percentages as published, and a middot marks one the source never printed.

DateFieldworkSample ALPL-NPGRNOTH 2PP ALP2PP L-NPStatus
2004-09-20 ····· 4951 transcript only source
Second fortnightly campaign poll for the News Ltd tabloids; 2PP only reported
2004-10-04 ·394678 4852 in the tracker source
Final 2004 campaign poll. Date established from Bowe's 4 Oct 2004 post on Galaxy's third fortnightly campaign poll, which prints the identical 52-48 2PP; the fortnightly series' next slot fell after polling day, so this wave is the final poll Galaxy's own accuracy table records (figures from that table: Lib 41 + Nat 5; other = Democrats 1 + other 7). Bowe reads the Coalition primary as 45; Galaxy's own table is used
2007-04-23 2007-04-20 → 2007-04-22 ·493795 5842 in the tracker source
ALP, Coalition and 2PP from Bowe's running table of Galaxy national polls; Greens 9, others 5 and fieldwork from Galaxy's own printed trend table (Courier Mail polldetail PDF, June 2007)
2007-05-14 2007-05-11 → 2007-05-13 ·493993 5743 in the tracker source
ALP, Coalition and 2PP from Bowe's running table of Galaxy national polls; Greens 9, others 3 and fieldwork from Galaxy's own printed trend table (Courier Mail polldetail PDF, June 2007)
2007-06-04 2007-06-01 → 2007-06-03 ·4442104 5347 in the tracker source
Primaries and fieldwork from Galaxy's own public-polls page; Lib 38 + Nat 4. 2PP and ALP/L-NP agree with Bowe's table exactly
2007-07-02 2007-06-29 → 2007-07-01 ·464194 5545 in the tracker source
ALP, Coalition and 2PP from Bowe's write-up; Greens 9, others 4 and fieldwork from Galaxy's own printed trend table (Courier Mail polldetail PDF, November 2007)
2007-07-30 ·4441105 5446 in the tracker source
Greens 10 stated in the post text; other is the residual
2007-08-27 2007-08-24 → 2007-08-26 1004473995 5743 in the tracker source
Primaries and fieldwork from Galaxy's own public-polls page; Lib 34 + Nat 5. Bowe notes not all 1004 interviews fell in the stated window
2007-09-24 2007-09-21 → 2007-09-23 ·464095 5644 in the tracker source
ALP, Coalition and 2PP from Bowe's write-up; Greens 9, others 5 and fieldwork from Galaxy's own printed trend table (Courier Mail polldetail PDF, November 2007)
2007-10-19 2007-10-16 → 2007-10-17 ·454384 5347 in the tracker source
Bowe's table dates it 19 Oct and his post ran the evening before; the poll itself closed two days earlier. ALP, Coalition and 2PP from Bowe; Greens 8, others 4 and fieldwork from Galaxy's own printed trend table (Courier Mail polldetail PDF, November 2007)
2007-11-04 2007-11-02 → 2007-11-04 1010454294 5446 in the tracker source
Conducted Friday to Sunday. Greens 9, others 4 from Galaxy's printed trend table (Courier Mail polldetail PDF, November 2007)
2007-11-23 ·42.542.58.56.5 5248 in the tracker source
Final 2007 campaign poll; primaries from Galaxy's own accuracy table, which names 23 November as the publication date. Lib 37.5 + Nat 5.0; other = Family First 2.5 + other 4.0
2008-11-17 10044340116 5545 in the tracker source
Other is the residual
2009-06-29 ·4430·· 5644 transcript only source
SUSPECT: Coalition primary printed as 30 which cannot produce a 56-44 2PP; likely a typo for 40. Not assimilated
2010-05-17 2010-05-14 → 2010-05-16 9943743128 5050 in the tracker source
First Galaxy federal poll since June 2009; primaries identical to the same-weekend Newspoll
2010-06-25 2010-06-24 → 2010-06-25 800···· 5248 transcript only source
Snap poll over Gillard's first two evenings; released with separate Thursday and Friday figures both at 52-48. No primaries published
2010-07-11 2010-07-09 → 2010-07-11 10093942145 5248 in the tracker source
Conducted over the weekend
2010-07-17 ·3942136 5248 in the tracker source
Conducted in the last days before the election was called
2010-07-18 2010-07-17 8003844126 5050 in the tracker source
Conducted Saturday night; Galaxy's second poll in two days
2010-08-08 8003842137 5149 in the tracker source
Sample presumed 800 by Bowe; primaries identical to the same-night Newspoll
2010-08-19 12003841147 5248 in the tracker source
Last Galaxy national poll before the 21 August 2010 election

The same polls as data: galaxy-federal-pre2012.csv. Each row links the page it was read from, and its date_basis says whether the date is the end of fieldwork, the day of publication, or a date from Bowe's running table (which is one or the other, to within a day).

What survives of galaxyresearch.com.au

131 pages survive in the Internet Archive. From 2012 Galaxy gave each poll its own dated post. Before that, the latest poll sat on the front page and on pubpolls.html until the next one replaced it, so only the polls a capture happened to catch survive. Every link below goes to the capture that holds the release.

Galaxy federal releases 61

Galaxy's own brand, one post per wave — primaries, 2PP, better PM, sample size and question wording.

Newspoll releases 38

The Newspoll waves Galaxy administered from mid-2015, published on Galaxy's letterhead.

State releases 8

Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria.

Commissioned releases 1

Polls run for a client masthead rather than Galaxy's own series.

pubpolls.html captures 5

Galaxy's own Polls page. Each capture froze whichever federal wave was current, plus its accuracy table of final campaign polls — the only surviving source for the 2007 Greens shares and fieldwork windows.

GhostWhoVotes mirror 12

The release scans and PDFs that circulated at the time, on the blog that mirrored them.

Not polls 6

Media clippings caught by the same URL shape; listed so the count reconciles.

The same index as data: galaxy-release-index.csv.

How this was assembled

Five sources, in the order they were useful. Anyone can re-run it: the two scripts below rebuild the data files and re-check every figure against the page it came from.

  1. The Poll Bludger, pollbludger.net. William Bowe wrote up essentially every Galaxy federal poll from 2004 on, and through 2007 kept a running table of the year's whole Galaxy series which he re-published in each new post — which is why 2007 is complete when nothing else holds it. The site serves its entire back catalogue live, including posts published under blogs.crikey.com.au. Its search is not a complete index: it missed the 25 June 2010 wave despite "Galaxy" being in the title, so the month archives (/2010/06/) and the Wayback URL index are the cross-check.
  2. Galaxy's own pubpolls.html, via the Internet Archive. The page printed the latest federal wave in full and kept an accuracy table of final campaign polls. It supplies the final 2004 and 2007 campaign polls and two 2007 waves in full.
  3. The Courier Mail's media server (media01.couriermail.com.au). Galaxy polled for the News Ltd tabloids, and the commissioner's site still serves the trend tables Galaxy printed for them as polldetail PDFs. Two survive from 2007 — June (n=1,021) and November (n=1,010) — and between them their trend tables carry every wave Galaxy took that year: the only other surviving record of the 2007 Greens and others shares and fieldwork windows, which Bowe's table never tabulated. The two sources' shared waves agree exactly.
  4. The release pages, via the Internet Archive's CDX index — the 2012-onward posts listed above.
  5. GhostWhoVotes, which mirrored the release scans as they came out.

Rebuild the release index and re-check every transcribed figure against its cited source:

node .build/extract-galaxy-archive.mjs --apply --verify

Merge the qualifying waves into the past-cycle data (dry-run without --apply):

node .build/assimilate-galaxy-cycle-csv.mjs --apply

Query the Internet Archive directly for anything this page has not classified:

curl -s 'https://web.archive.org/cdx/search/cdx?url=galaxyresearch.com.au*&output=text&fl=original,timestamp&collapse=urlkey&filter=statuscode:200'

Known gaps and one suspect figure

The 29 June 2009 wave is transcribed with a Coalition primary of 30, which cannot produce the 56–44 two-party figure reported alongside it; it is almost certainly a typo for 40 in the original write-up. The row is flagged in the CSV and deliberately kept out of the tracker.

Galaxy's final 2004 campaign poll survives in full only inside the accuracy table on its own site, which never printed its date. Bowe's post of 4 October 2004, covering the third fortnightly campaign poll, records the identical 2PP, and the fortnightly series' remaining slot fell after polling day — so the undated accuracy-table row is the 4 October poll, and it is dated accordingly and assimilated. Its figures read off Galaxy's own table diverge from the write-up in one cell (Coalition primary 46 table vs 45 prose); the table wins.

Six 2007 waves reached this archive through Bowe's running table, which tabulated ALP, L-NP, and 2PP only. Galaxy's printed trend tables on the Courier Mail's media server (source 3 above) supplied their Greens, others, and fieldwork windows, cross-checked against the two waves pubpolls.html already held. That leaves three transcript-only waves: the 20 September 2004 campaign poll, reported two-party only; the suspect 29 June 2009 wave above; and the 25 June 2010 snap poll, for which no primaries were published. A September 2026 sweep of what survives — the Courier Mail PDFs (a 2007–2008 run only), the Wayback captures of galaxyresearch.com.au in each window, and the polling blogs and Wikipedia tables of the day — turned up none of the missing figures; for the 2010 snap poll, no trend-table PDF was ever produced, consistent with its two-party-only reporting.